190 Thousand Boilers Sold Show that less Wood Will Be Used for Heating in Europe

Last year, more than 190 thousand units were sold in the 6 most important European markets for biomass heating boilers, which represents a fall of 40.9% compared to the previous year. There are many reasons for this: declining interest in wood heating systems compared to other heat generators, problems with the environmental compatibility of this technology, keyword biomass potential, or poorly organized and sometimes overly bureaucratic subsidy programs, as the latest study by InterConnection Consulting shows.

Pellet Boilers on The Rise again after a Difficult Last Year

Despite the significant decline last year, pellet boilers remain the best-selling type of boiler in Europe with a market share of about 48%. In 2022, however, their market share was almost 75%, which is due to the various national subsidy programs, as pellet boilers usually receive preferential subsidies. This year, pellet boilers will rise again to 53% and a market share of 63% is expected by the end of 2027. The second most popular boiler type are wood log boilers with a market share of 24% in 2024, whose customers prefer the manual operation of this heating system and mostly live in densely wooded regions. In third place are so-called “combi boilers”, which can be equipped with both logs and pellets. The least common are wood chip boilers, which generate heat by burning wood chips or wood shavings. Compared to the other boiler types, the latter are overrepresented in the heating output classes above 50 kW and are therefore installed more frequently in non-residential buildings.

Fluctuating Renovation Segment Due to Subsidy Programs

Taking a closer look at the new construction and renovation/replacement business segments, the latter is clearly the larger one with a market share of around 92% (2023). By the end of next year, the market share will increase to 94.7%, but after that it will fall again due to the expiration of national subsidy programs and political uncertainties regarding renewable heat emitters. This trend is also due to the declining popularity of biomass boilers in the new construction segment: In Germany, for example, boilers are now only installed as central heating systems in less than 5% of apartments and detached houses.

Poland Saves The Industry with a Slight Plus

Sales figures also fell significantly in Poland last year, with a drop of almost 24%. However, positive growth rates are expected from this year until 2027 with an average growth rate from 2024 to 2027 of 9.3%. The main reasons for this development are as follows: Firstly, the government has launched the “Clean Air” subsidy program, with cost reimbursements of up to 100%, which incentivizes Polish citizens to replace their old oil and gas boilers and other fossil fuel-based heating appliances with newer and more environmentally friendly options such as heat pumps and boilers, and secondly, the proportion of applications for the purchase of an environmentally friendly boiler actually exceeds the proportion of applications for heat pumps. This is due to the declining popularity of heat pumps, mainly due to problems with scams and dubious manufacturers who tried to sell heat pumps as if they were of the highest quality, but ultimately did not meet international emission standards. This phenomenon makes Poland a special case in Europe and the Polish market thus stands in stark contrast to other European countries, where the market for biomass boilers is set to decline by double digits over the next three years. Heat pumps are seen as the better option in most European countries and it is therefore not surprising that the European boiler market as a whole will remain relatively stable over the next three years despite Poland’s strong growth, meaning that the average volume growth rate from 2024 to 2027 is 0.3 %.

Manufacturers of heating biomass boilers should not limit themselves to the production of these products, but should also offer other heat emitters, in particular heat pumps, in order to be able to react quickly to the changing preferences of consumers and thus position themselves more strategically diversified. As the case of Poland shows, biomass boilers should not be ruled out as a heating solution in the future, but this market will shrink back to a niche market, at least according to the current situation.